Those familiar with our thinking might reasonably conclude that we believe “elevated uncertainty” is a permanent condition, and they wouldn’t be wrong. However, the nature of this uncertainty has changed over the past few years.
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Private equity is large, varied, and increasingly complex. Outcomes will vary meaningfully by manager, strategy, vintage year, and market environment which is why we believe investors should take a diversified and programmatic approach to the asset class. The headline narrative often describes the largest managers and transactions, but that is only part of the story.
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By now, you have undoubtedly read many 2024 retrospectives and, admittedly, year-end seems a long time ago given the heightened policy uncertainties which have spilled over into capital markets. Because we’ve received a number of questions on private equity in the current environment, we felt it worthwhile to provide a review of 2024 now that year-end marks are largely in, followed by our outlook.
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Reflecting on 2024, our research team homed in on five key themes: elevated policy uncertainty; equity market concentration; the impact of passive investing on time horizons and volatility; the broad opportunity set outside of large cap U.S. equities; and the importance of manager selection. Those issues moved to the forefront in 2025.
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